Today Canada's Health Minister is talking about Canada's Provinces imposing mandatory vaccines on all Canadians. He is like the classic general fighting the last war.
I don't think we can trust Canada’s most recent COVID case numbers, as clearly the rapid growth of Omicron has outstripped our ability to test for it, so we need to go back a few weeks to get an accurate tally. If we look at the CBC coronavirus tracker, we see that Canada's seven day rolling average hit 10,522 on December 22nd, which means 7 times that number in the previous week, or 73,654. If 3,000 cases a day were Delta - or 21,000 - that leaves more than 52,000 Omicron cases diagnosed during that week.
Now 52,000 cases is only a little more than 1/1000 of Canada's population. But here's the rub: with a three-day doubling time, Canada's Omicron cases will increase 1,000 fold over the next thirty days.
It's a safe bet that pretty much everyone who was diagnosed in the week of December 15th to 22nd was infected by December 15th at the latest. That means we can theoretically expect Omicron to infect almost everyone thirty days later on January 14.
It won't happen quite like that. Once Omicron has infected the majority of the population, herd immunity will start to protect those not yet infected. And it will take a while longer for the true COVID hermits to get infected. But basically, the majority of Canada's population is going to get infected with omicron during the next week. Lock-downs and school closures would only push back that outcome by a few days.
There won't be much warning. I suspect today more than one-eight of the Canadian population has already been infected with omicron. We’re hearing lots of media reports of hospitals, police and emergency services being short-staffed: that’s probably our best indicator of the actual number of Omicron cases. We won't find that out officially for another week, and that's assuming that Canada ramps up it's testing enough to accurately measure what's happening. When Canadians are told that one-eight of the country has had a positive diagnosis for COVID, the majority of Canadians will already have been infected. Two weeks from today the pandemic will be all over but the shouting.
There is little point to vaccinating anyone at this point, in that they will almost certainly catch COVID before that vaccination can take effect. For the same reason, there's not much point in giving booster shots, except for those who plan to be COVID hermits, starting today.
Canada's COVID data tracking is absolutely abysmal. It is only because of Canada’s inadequate data tracking that Canadian politicians can still get away with blaming the unvaccinated for the spread of Omicron. We know from countries like Denmark that do track the data well that more than 90% of Omicron cases are occurring in the vaccinated:
Force-vaccinating everyone down to babies and toddlers won't slow the spread of Omicron, given that omicron is primarily spread by the vaccinated. And let's not also forget that Omicron must have entered Canada on a fully-vaccinated traveller.
Again, other countries are more competent at tracking those in hospital with omicron. We find in Denmark that three-quarters of those in hospital with Omicron are vaccinated:
Here's the comparable data for England:
Yes, the unvaccinated are somewhat over-represented in that group relative to their presence in the general population, but if hospitals do get overwhelmed with Omicron cases, we can expect the large majority of those hospital admissions will be fully vaccinated. (The wave of Omicron has already passed in South Africa without hospitals getting overwhelmed, which bodes well for Canada in that regard.)
Anyone who gets Omicron and recovers has the best immunity to COVID on the planet. Why do I say that? Injected vaccines have an Achille's heel for respiratory viruses.
The human immune system has two lines of defense against respiratory viruses. The first line of defence is IgA antibodies found in the mucous membranes of the nose, throat and lungs.
This is where the war against respiratory viruses typically begins - at the places where the virus tries to enter the body: the nose, the throat, and the lungs. Because the body frequently has to fight off viral invaders in these places, IgA antigens tend to cause only low levels of inflammation in the body.
There's a whole second level of immune system defence based on IgM antigens for when a virus has entered the body and gotten into the bloodstream, organs and muscle tissue. It happens far less often that a respiratory virus gets past the nose throat and lungs and actually enters the bloodstream. When this happens, the body considers this to be a red alert situation. IgM antigens put the whole immune system on high alert and create inflammation to make the body more hostile to the viral invader.
If you are vaccinated by injection, it is this second line of immune defence that is triggered. Because the immune system response is triggered by vaccine-induced spike proteins manufactured in muscle cells in the shoulder, the immune response that is generated is based on IgM antibodies, and is primarily in the blood. There is very little IgA response in the mucous membranes of the nose, throat and bronchi, because those parts of the body are not directly impacted by vaccines.
Why is this important? First of all, it goes a long way towards explaining why the vaccines have been somewhat ineffective in preventing Delta infections, and almost completely ineffective in preventing Omicron infections. Essentially Delta or Omicron has to get into the bloodstream before the body develops a full immune response and belatedly fights it off.
Anyone who has caught Omicron and recovered has an immunity that is significantly better that vaccine immunity in two ways. First because their primary immune response will be in the places where it is most needed: the mucous membranes of the nose, throat and lungs. And secondly, that immunity will be to the most recent variant of COVID. Omicron is rapidly displacing all previous COVID variants. It's pretty much a given that any future variants of COVID we will have to deal with in the future will be the offspring of Omicron. Omicron infection is a de facto vaccine. Omicron makes all existing vaccines obsolete.
I'm guessing that, a month from today, Canada's politicians will finally admit that. Let's not let them do anything stupid in the meantime.
PS: Me, my wife and our son Juan Diego just tested positive for COVID. We have flu-like symptoms but no more - so far. Back in Ontario, my 96-year-old father is also COVID-positive despite being booster vaccinated. Dad may not be so lucky. I’m guessing in the next few days you’ll hear of more and more of your friends and co-workers being infected with Omicron. Be prepared for that. As I’ve said before - now is a very time to take really good care of yourself to boost your immune system.
Your claims as to antigens should have medical citations as well as comparisons of natural immunity decay versus vaccine immunity decay. The vaccines do trigger both, just the a type decays sooner than the b. The article is science”y” yet a tad misleading. https://journals.plos.org/plosone/article?id=10.1371/journal.pone.0249499
I have also caught COVID! For the longest time I thought it was just a bad flu, until I realized that's exactly what COVID is.
I don't think its possible to keep politicians from doing anything stupid, it's like trying to make a dumb person smart. Well, it isn't even *like* making a dumb person smart, it simply is.
The worst part is I don't actually know if I have COVID, as they will only test essential workers, and I don't even have ivermectin, only other vitamins, while ivermectin is a very good thing for making COVID more mild.