Carrier Roulette

Do you feel lucky, Donald?

Well, the possibility I warned about in my last post has come to pass.

Fox News has been almost unbelievable in its relentless cheer-leading for war. America’s left-wing press may be having a field day with old clips of Trump’s promising not to get America involved in ‘stupid’ foreign wars - but I’m guessing most Fox viewers won’t see them. I feel the need to lay out some of the salient facts of the situation, and point to resources more grounded in reality.

Let’s start with the basics. Under the US constitution, only the US congress can declare war. In going to war without Congressional approval, Donald Trump broke American law. Since the early 1980’s, assassinating a foreign leader is illegal under US law. Donald Trump broke that law too. Under the UN charter, starting an unprovoked war of aggression is a war crime: Donald Trump and Bibi Netenyahu have made themselves war criminals. (Again!).

Trumps feeble excuse is that Iran was planning to attack America and Israel at any moment. Never mind that Iran had been led to believe that negotiations to end the war were succeeding - after Iran made major concessions. Final negotiations were scheduled in Geneva for TODAY. Why would Iran attack when it thought it could achieve its goals through negotiation? If Iran was planning an imminent attack, why was the Ayatollah is his house with his whole family around him? Only Americans could be stupid enough to believe that the Iranians were just about to attack.

A delusional Donald Trump wants to believe the Iranians will either quickly fold in surrender or overthrow their government.

Let’s imagine the inverse situation. In the mist of peace negotiations, the Iranians have murdered the US President. They’ve slaughtered 150 American schoolgirls. And they’ve murdered the Pope. How many Americans do you think would want anything other than revenge? Why would the Iranians feel any different?

Perhaps the best summary of the situation I’ve seen is Judge Napolitano’s interview with Jeffrey Sachs.

The war against Iran will have serious economic impacts. Iran has now struck a total of six tankers in the Strait of Hormuz. Under those circumstances, no insurance company in the world will insure any vessel to pass through the Straits, effectively blocking 20 percent of the world’s oil from leaving the middle East.

In addition, Iran’s attack on the giant Ras Laffan gas export facility in Qatar, which ships 20% of the world’s liquid natural gas, has caused Qatar to shut that facility indefinitely. The upshot is we can expect the price of natural gas to double very quickly. (Europe, which is very low on natural gas stocks at the moment, may have trouble purchasing natural gas at any price.)

Iran has also attacked the largest Saudi oil refinery, causing it to be shut down, as well as a number of other oil facilities across the Middle East. Oil prices will also go up. Though we can guess the Trump administration will do what it can to buffer any increase in gas prices - probably by emptying the US national oil reserve - you should expect gasoline prices to go up soon, and go higher and higher the longer the war goes on.

If the global economy weren’t already in danger of sliding into recession, rapidly increasing oil prices will for certain create that outcome - Canada and the United States included.

It’s probably useful to mention a few stories the mainstream Western media would prefer not to talk about.

First, there’s the fact that the US bombed a girl’s elementary school in Iran, killing 150 girls and wounding 100. (When the US media does report such events, they tend to report it in ways that call it into question by embedding it with taglines such as “Iranian State Media reported,” as if this wanton slaughter was just a propaganda ploy by the Iranian Government.)

Next, there’s the murder of the Ayatollah. The Ayatollah was not just the leader of Iran, he was also the spiritual leader of tens of millions of Shia Muslims. In terms of the damage to America’s standing in the Muslim world, it was the equivalent of how the Christian world would react if America had murdered the Pope. What’s worse, America has just murdered the single person most responsible for Iran never building a nuclear bomb. Beyond stupid!

Then there’s the fact that the Kuwaitis accidentally shot down three American F-15 fighter jets valued at 30 million dollars each in an incident reminiscent of the Keystone Cops. (One can guess that if Foxnews reported this at all, they certainly didn’t linger on the story.)

Finally, the Iranians are doing a lot more damage than Foxnews will admit. They’ve hit US bases all across the Middle East - which makes it likely the death toll is considerably higher than the half dozen US deaths so far reported. Though Israel has worked hard to censor reports on damage to that country, there’s abundant evidence that a lot of Iranian missiles are getting through.

Finally, it should be pointed out, the longer this goes on, the more dangerous it gets for Israel and for America. America, Israel, and the Arab nations all have limited numbers of (very expensive) anti-missile systems. If they’re gone before Iran runs out of missiles, everything Iran fires will get through. If America also burns through most of its offensive weaponry attacking Iran over the next month, it would be extremely vulnerable to any attack from China. (Wars in Ukraine, Gaza, and the 12-day war mean the US started this new war much depleted.)

My guess is that China will encourage Iran to attack the American warships every day or two - like buying lottery tickets to one day get lucky. Though Iran is far more likely to sink a US destroyer than a US carrier, even that would make a war that is already unpopular with Americans even more unpopular.

Then in three weeks or so, once America’s weapons stocks are extremely low, China could give Iran a couple of dozen of their hypersonic silkworm anti-ship missiles along with targeting assistance, so Iran can sink both US carriers. The Americans would be furious knowing the Chinese were involved, but they would also recognize the utter futility of declaring war on China when their weapons stocks were empty and China’s were full. Among the various stupid risks Donald Trump is taking as Israel’s servant, that’s probably the most dangerous. (Actually, I suppose the worst risk is Israel’s Sampson Option - which could end in World War 3.)

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PS: I had been developing a certain grudging respect for our new Prime Minister Mark Carney. Which vanished completely when I heard him supporting Trump’s stupid and illegal war. You failed the character test, Mark, and exposed Canada as just another grovelling vassal state, like most of Europe.

PPS: If you have any illusions that America can fight a long war in the Middle East, please watch this from Money over History.

PPPS: Julian McFarlane has an interesting exploration of how and why governments do such obviously stupid things.

Pissing against the wind