Sweden today has no vaccine passports, no mask mandates, and almost no social-distancing anti-COVID restrictions. It has decided to live with COVID as an endemic virus. When we look at how Sweden is doing at the moment, it’s hard to argue with their approach:
That said, we can’t just decide “Let’s behave like Sweden now” without there being consequences. If you look at the chart above, you’ll see three spikes in deaths in Sweden. They represent times when COVID cases were very high in Sweden. Each time after those spikes, COVID deaths in Sweden fell below those in the US and Europe, as a result of partial herd immunity slowing the spread of the virus. Over all, Sweden’s cumulative death rates were as good or better than Europe or the US – their deaths just happened at different times.
Sweden’s low-key approach to dealing with COVID in the past 18 months has had three main results. First, Sweden suffered less economic disruption than most countries. Second, it suffered less from the forced social isolation caused by lock-downs. And finally, Sweden has now come much closer to achieving natural herd immunity than most other jurisdictions.
If we decided to follow Sweden’s approach now, there would be a significant price to pay to achieve herd immunity. A smaller price than there once was, given that much of our population is largely protected from hospitalization and death by vaccines, and also given that new antiviral COVID treatments from Moderna and Pfizer will soon be available. But a price nonetheless. That being said, it may still be our best option, given that very high rates of vaccination do not seem effective in really slowing the spread of the delta variant, as we’ve seen most recently in Ireland, which has 91 percent of its population fully vaccinated but now has the highest number of hospitalized COVID patients in seven months.
Ninety-one percent vaccination isn’t high enough you say? How about Gibraltar, with more than 99% of its population fully vaccinated. That should stop COVID in it’s tracks, right? Well, actually Gibraltar is having to cancel Christmas events because COVID cases are rising ‘exponentially’. The hope that the COVID pandemic will end if we can just get enough people vaccinated is wishful thinking, with no evidence whatsoever to back it up. Perhaps it is time to consider other alternatives.
The advantages of moving towards Sweden’s approach, even at this late date, are three-fold:
We’d see less economic dislocation and damage going forward.
We’d reduce the social polarization caused by vaccine and mask mandates.
We could return to something approaching normal life.
Perhaps we could at least begin talking about this as an option?
Bruce O’Hara
P.S.: The cost of shifting over to the Swedish model would be even lower if we started using ivermectin and/or fluvoxamine immediately, and dosed the general population with vitamin C, vitamin D, and zinc!