Fighting to the Last Israeli?

How big will the war in the Middle East get?

Russia has a mutual-defence agreement with Iran. I suspect Russia would love to be doing more to help Iran right now, but it has its hands full with Ukraine. I can imagine Russia is putting immense pressure on China to provide Iran with anti-aircraft systems, much as it provided Pakistan with (very effective!) anti-aircraft systems in Pakistan’s recent spat with India.

China has worked assiduously for decades to avoid going to war. Its long-term strategy has been to 1) out-compete the US economically, 2) build global trade and investment partnerships while the US creates enemies, and 3) wait until the US bankrupts itself. I’m sure China’s strong preference would be to keep to that plan.

That said, Iran is a hugely important partner for China. China buys a ton of cheap oil from Iran. Iran is central to China’s Belt and Road transport network. Iran has an army of 500,000 soldiers. If China abandons Iran, that will send a very strong message to Russia and all the BRICS nations that China is a paper tiger and an untrustworthy ally.

Given all of the above, I believe China will be pushed to provide at least covert support to the Iranians, initially in the form of anti-aircraft systems, and perhaps a shipment or two of hyper-sonic Silkworm missiles they can claim were sold to Iran long ago. (It’s not as though China would be doing anything different for its ally than what America has long been doing for Israel.)

If we look at the larger Middle East, Iran doesn’t have a lot of real friends. That said, pretty much all of the Middle East sees Iran as a necessary counterweight to both Israel and the United States. Nutcases with power in Israel dream of a “greater Israel” that includes all or most of Lebanon, Syria, Jordan, and Egypt. The last thing you want in any of those countries is an Israel without constraints.

For the moment, I suspect that much of the Middle East would be content to see Israel and Iran destroy each other. The ‘but’ on that is that no-one wants Iran to actually be defeated.

The longer the war of attrition between Israel and Iran continues, the fewer offensive weapons Israel will have left, and the greater the likelihood the Iron Dome will completely run out of anti-missile hardware. At a certain point, if Iran were to collapse, or appeared to be on the verge of doing so, I suspect several Middle East nations might decide that a collective strike against a weakened Israel would be their best defence against Israel re-building its military powers in the future.

Though all of the Arab countries, with the exception of Yemen, have thus far shed only crocodile tears over the plight of the Palestinians, I suspect the prospect of an Israel bracketed by Palestinian states in the West Bank and Gaza, pushed back from Lebanon and Syria, no longer a threat to Jordan or Egypt - perhaps even pushed back to its 1967 borders - would suddenly make a united moral crusade for ‘justice and freedom for all Palestinians’ very attractive to the Arab world. How willing the Arab world would be to risk the wrath of the Americans in this regard will likely depend on whether Russia and/or China are quietly in their corner.

Donald Trump is under increasing pressure to attack Iran directly.

So far, probably only 20 percent of the missiles fired by Iran have gotten past Israel’s Iron Dome defence. Even that reduced number of hits has caused a great deal of destruction in Tel Aviv and Haifa. (And probably far more deaths and injuries than the Israelis are admitting.) What happens if the Iron Dome arsenal is depleted before Iran runs out of ballistic missiles? If all of Iran’s missiles start to get through, how long will it be before every power station in Israel is destroyed? How long before Tel Aviv and Haifa look like Gaza North?

Iran is apparently voting tomorrow on whether to block the Straits of Hormuz. Normally 20 percent of the world’s oil flows through those Straits. Block the Straits, and the price of oil doubles in short order. That would pretty much guarantee a world-wide recession, including in the United States.

The dilemma Trump faces is two-fold. First, America is extremely isolated in the Middle East. (Most of the Arab States are forbidding Trump to attack Iran from airbases in their countries, for example.) Second, he can’t be completely sure that he won’t find himself at war with both Russia and China if he attacks Iran directly.

I think Donald Trump has painted himself into a corner. Trump got himself elected as the ‘peace President.’ We have to think his base will not be happy if he takes America directly into a war with Iran. But there are a great many Republican politicians now demanding that he do exactly that.

If America does nothing while Israel gets progressive shattered, large chunks of America will be outraged. But if Trump takes America directly to war with Iran and that war spins out of control - with, say, a US carrier sent to the bottom of the Mediterranean - that outcome could be far, far worse, both for America, and for Donald Trump’s political future. (And that’s assuming said war doesn’t go nuclear!)

I am pretty sure that if Donald Trump allows Bibi Netenyahu to drag America into a larger war in the Middle East, he, and America, will come to regret it deeply. Trump’s best option is to swallow his pride and say: “I told Bibi not to do it. He didn’t listen.”