FUBAR in the Middle East

Why isn’t this story front page news?

Five decades ago, I was writing dinky little computer programs on punch cards at the University of Toronto. Back then, you only had to misplace a comma and the IBM360 would immediately spit back your punch cards like you’d deeply insulted it. For this reason, our programs always had to include a FUBAR subroutine that would tell us at what point the program had glitched. The polite expansion of FUBAR was ‘Fouled Up Beyond All Recognition.’

What’s currently happening in the Middle East has put me in mind of FUBAR.

Bibi Netenyahu has wanted a war with Iran since practically forever. Or, more accurately, he has long wanted AMERICA to go to war with Iran.

A week ago, he got as close as he’s ever been to that goal.

Bibi had been working tirelessly to try to provoke Iran to attack Israel. First, assassinating a top Hamas leader in Tehran at the inauguration of the New Iranian president. Then, when that didn’t work, assassinating Hezbollah leader Nassrallah, along with several hundred Lebanese civilians who lived in the four apartment blocks above where Nasrallah was hiding. That pissed off Iran so thoroughly they felt compelled to respond.

That’s when things first started to go South. There’s good video evidence that a whole lot of Iran’s hypersonic missiles got through. Perhaps they even took out a number of Israeli F35 jets on the ground. I’ve heard reports that the Americans spent roughly a billion dollars firing anti-missile missiles at the incoming Iranian hypersonics and didn’t hit a one.

Bibi did his usual thing of saying: “Anyone who hits Israel, we will hit them back harder.” Five days later, it still hasn’t happened. One has to wonder why.

I’m guessing the Israelis must be running short of bombs by now, what with the huge number they’ve dropped on Gaza and now Beirut. If they lost a number of planes too, that could also be a concern. My understanding is the ‘limited’ ground invasion into Lebanon is not going well.

But three things have happened this week that must give the Israelis pause.

First, the Iranians gave a clear warning that if Israel retaliates, they will take out all of Israel’s electrical grid, and target their gas and oil pipelines as well. After the last strike, it is clear that Iran has the capacity to do so.

Perhaps Israel can grievously injure Iran in a similar manner; we don’t know. I suspect that knowing the Iranians have suffered a similar fate would be cold comfort for the Israeli people if they must spend weeks without water or power. (If I were the Iranians, I’d have my retaliation missiles all cued up to launch the moment Israeli warplanes begin heading towards Iran, just to be sure they can’t be taken out in a massive first strike.)

The second thing that happened was that Russia, which has tried very hard to remain neutral up until now, has clearly run out of patience with Netenyahu. They just made a big show of sending a large shipment of aid to Beirut.

There have been a large number of military transport flights between Russia and Tehran recently. And the Russians have made it abundantly they will actively support Iran if Israel attacks. (Russia has recently sold Iran some of it’s top-of-the-line fighter jets - likely equipped with air-to-air anti-aircraft missiles with a greater range than anything the Israelis have.) That, combined with Russia’s state-of-the-art anti-aircraft defenses, must have markedly raised the risks that any Israeli or American air attack on Iran will end badly for the attacker.

The third event this week is that several Middle Eastern oil-producers have declared themselves to be neutral in the conflict. Though this sounds innocuous enough, it has ramifications that mean it should be front page news.

A little background is required to know why these nations felt they needed to declare themselves neutral now, and why it is such a big deal.

If Iran finds itself at war with the United States, the first thing Iran will do is sink any American carrier close enough to launch strikes on Iran. (If the Americans weren’t clear about the Iranians’ ability to do this before, they are now.)

The second thing Iran will do is to sink a couple of oil tankers - preferably American - in the Straits of Hormuz, blocking it. About one fifth of the world’s oil passes through these very narrow Straits next door to Iran. Block that flow of oil and the price of oil likely doubles overnight. If Iran were then to hit a couple of major oil refineries in, say, Saudi Arabia and Qatar, that could easily redouble the price of oil yet again.

Oil at $400 a barrel would be an absolute economic disaster for America and Europe. Even the possibility of that freaks them out. (Imagine gasoline at $8 to $10 a gallon as US voters head to the polls!)

The risk that Iran would target their oil facilities is what has made the big Arab oil producers suddenly gung-ho on staying neutral in any conflict between Iran and Israel/America.

Members of the Gulf Cooperation Council, which includes the United Arab Emirates, Bahrain, Saudi Arabia, Oman, Qatar and Kuwait, “sought to reassure Iran of their neutrality” regarding the Iran-Israel conflict, according to a report by Reuters. The all-important wrinkle of neutrality is that neutrality includes not allowing Iran to be attacked from their territories.

The United States has a huge airbase full of jet fighters in Qatar. The US also has substantial airbases in Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates, Bahrain, and Kuwait. All are now off-limits for use in attacking Iran.

I suspect the Americans would be sorely tempted to use those airbases, regardless of the wishes of the host countries, if war with Iran broke out. That said, there could be serious long-term consequences. China already has one military base nearby, in Djibouti. In the worst case, one can easily imagine infuriated Gulf States demanding the US forces pack up and leave - and inviting the Chinese in to take their place.

One can guess that this whole situation - particularly the vulnerable carriers and the now non-useable airbases - has given the Americans the heebie-jeebies. I’m sure the Israelis are pleading with the Americans to be full partners in any attack on Iran. I’m guessing the American are hoping that, if they can just get Israel to delay their retaliation long enough, that cooler heads will prevail in Israel.

I just don’t see it. Israel has based its entire schtick during the past year on over-the-top deterrence. I’m sure their very strong preference would be that Israel and America attack Iran together. But, if they can’t get that, they’ll go it alone. I’m expecting that to happen soon.