Impatience is one of my besetting sins. I can often see where things are headed and become obsessively impatient waiting for those things to happen. Which does not serve either my mental equilibrium, or my general wellbeing.
For that reason, I have decided to let the world unfold as it does for the next six weeks or so, and tend to my own garden. Ditto for this blog. Maybe after that hiatus, I’ll return. Maybe not.
I didn’t want to simply disappear from your in-box without saying: “Hasta la vista” which translates as “Until next time” rather than “Good-bye.”
I also didn’t want to leave you empty-handed. So here are my top ten predictions for 2024.
The war in Ukraine will end badly for Ukraine and the United States.
A. Best case scenario: The Ukrainian people see the writing on the wall. We’ll see either a political coup or a semi-voluntary military collapse soon. Maybe Ukraine will manage to keep Odessa and Kharkiv that way.
B. Likely outcome: Ukraine will fight on till the bitter end, losing both Odessa and Kharkiv. The rump Ukraine that remains will be broke, depopulated and demoralized.
C. Worst case: Ukraine will find some way to manipulate NATO into entering the war. Not likely, but not impossible. If World War 3 happens, be prepared to kiss your ass goodbye.
The war in Gaza will end badly for Israel, and for the United States
A. Best case scenario: The Israeli people realize that the horrifying public spectacle of Gaza is creating new Hamas and Hezbollah recruits much faster than the IDF is able to kill current Hamas fighters. Benjamin Netanyahu is turfed from power, and sent to jail on corruption charges. A ceasefire is declared. Israel slowly rebuilds bridges to the Arab world, and slowly digs its economy out of a deep hole.
B. Likely outcome: Hezbollah will provoke Israel into entering Lebanon before Israel can provoke Hezbollah into invading Israel. The Israeli army will fare badly in this guerrilla war. Israel suffers major casualties and serious damage due to massive Hezbollah rocket fire. Its economy takes years to recover.
C. Worst case: Israel and/or America attack Iran. The carnage in both Iran and Israel is immense. The US loses one or more aircraft carriers. Not likely, but not impossible. If World War 3 happens, be prepared to kiss your ass goodbye.
Taiwan will continue to hang fire.
A. Likely scenario: China will continue to play a waiting game, hoping that American defeats in Afghanistan, Ukraine and Israel will eventually cause the Taiwanese people to see China as a more trustworthy protector/supporter than America.
B. Worst Case Scenario: China stupidly invades Taiwan as a way to distract from China’s economic problems, drawing the US into the war. Not likely, but not impossible. If World War 3 happens, be prepared to kiss your ass goodbye.
BRICS will get bigger and stronger.
The war in Gaza is driving Africa, the Muslim world, and the Arab world into the arms of Russia and China. I suspect Iraq will demand that the American military leaves pronto, and then join BRICS. There’s some possibility Turkey will leave NATO for BRICS, although Ergodan for decades has made a science of getting Russia and America to outbid each other in their attempts to garner Turkish support.
That said, BRICS will be ineffective as an international power bloc so long as India and Saudi Arabia remain on the fence between America and Russia/China. If those two countries decide the BRICS is truly where their future lies, we will we see concerted efforts to develop a BRICS alternative to the US dollar.
Big political shifts will take place in Europe. US politics will get even uglier.
I strongly suspect we will see changes of Government in both the UK and Germany this year. I suspect populist anti-immigration parties will see a continued rise in popularity all across Europe.
One can imagine any number of nightmare scenarios unfolding during and after the US election. The one outcome that seems reasonably certain is that American politics will get even more vitriolic, and more hysterical, if that is possible.
There will be recessions in England, Europe, Canada and the US
I strongly suspect the economies of Canada, England, and Germany are already in recession, and that we are nearing the end of those Governments’ statisticians’ ability to obfuscate the reality of said economic downturns.
The US will continue to juice its economy with trillions of dollars of borrowed money, which may prevent the US from entering a technical recession. That said, most Americans will be convinced by their own experience that the US economy is in recession by the middle of 2024, regardless of what the the US Government’s data geeks claim.
Something important will break in the global economy.
I expect we’ll see one or more banks go under, one or more currencies collapse, , one or more giant corporation go under, and at least one country will default on its bonds.
If financial contagion spreads to the derivatives market, or to the larger banking system, things could get really ugly. Not likely, but possible.
There will be a housing crash, a commercial real estate crash, a stock market crash, a bond market slump, and a surge in bankruptcies and foreclosures.
Housing and commercial real estate crashes are already under way, albeit slowly. Bankruptcies and foreclosures will continue to mount. A mid-sized stock market crash and and a modest bond market slump won’t happen till it’s clear the global economy is in recession.
The possibility of global oil shortages will appear on the horizon.
There won’t yet be actual oil shortages in 2024, particularly if the global recession is severe, but it will appear as a possibility for the not-too-distant future. Americans will realize that the bounty of shale oil has a use-by date. Several of the major older global oilfields will start to see significant declines in output.
The US will try to kick the DEBT can of down the road one last time.
It will be hard to find buyers for the trillions of dollars of new US Government bonds being issued. Rising interest payments will drive up the US deficit sharply. The US Fed will try to put off the day of reckoning by buying up trillions of dollars of US bonds with money printed out of thin air. Maybe they’ll get away with it one last time. Maybe they won’t.
Almost certainly, all that deficit spending and money-printing will create renewed inflation, and drive up interest rates. Both of which will negatively impact an already struggling US economy.
That’s my TOP TEN list for 2024. With luck, by the end of the year, 2024 will feel like a necessary cleansing rather than an endless disaster movie.
What’s on your list for 2024?
"be prepared to kiss your ass goodbye."
I'll need to get some chapstick!
Liked your predictions, they make sense to me. Bottom line: prepare thyself.
Hope you get to "decompress" in your time away and can have some time to yourself.
Remember Gonzalo Lira!!!
Bruce, Excellent overview...well thought out and, sadly, likely correct in many ways. Enjoy your break and your faithful readers hope you come back to grace our eyes with your prose.