Though you’d never know it looking at the mainstream media in North America, this was a pivotal week in the war in Ukraine.
Early in the week, Russian forces surrounded two important cities in the Donbass region of Ukraine: Zolote and Hirske. A couple of thousand Ukrainian soldiers were cut off from all re-supply, and surrendered as a result. (This was actually a good outcome for those soldiers, much better than being shelled to death under a relentless Russian artillery onslaught.)
The loss of Zolote and Hirske made the position of the Ukrainian forces in Sievierodonetsk and Borivske untenable, so the Ukrainian government instructed its forces to withdraw from both cities back to the one remaining city at the Eastern end of the Donbass theatre - Lysychansk.
To lose four cities in five days was a huge loss for Ukraine, but worse is yet to come.
Lysychansk is now also effectively cut off from re-supply. There are only two highways leading from Lysychansk to the remainder of the territories controlled by Ukraine, and both of those highways are now within easy reach of Russsian artillery.
It has been reported that three convoys of Ukranian troops tried to flee Lysychansk in the past few days - and all three convoys were shattered by Russian artillery.
I suspect in the next few days, the Russian troops will try to cut off Lysychansk completely, much as they did with Zoolote and Gorske. That will involve taking the Lysychansk oil refinery, and any villages North of it as far as the Severodonetsk River.
Once troops from the South reach the Severodonetsk River, forces from Izum can cross the Severodonetsk River to support them in closing the cauldron trapping the Ukranian forces in Lysychansk.
I expect very little will happen for about a week after that. At this point, the Russian army is like a python that has just swallowed an antelope. It needs time to digest.
Most of the next week will be spent processing Ukrainian prisoners, de-mining, removing booby traps, and inventorying captured equipment. There are hundreds of square miles of captured territory that need to be stabilized, swept for soldiers and mines, and returned to some sense of normality.
If I were the Russians, I would not rush to attack Lysychansk. Better to wait until the Ukrainians are out of food and ammunition. Maybe then the troops in Lysychansk will do the sensible thing and surrender. That would save a lot of lives, and reduce damage and destruction of the city.
Once Lysychansk either surrenders or is hammered relentlessly into defeat, the calculus of the war will be massively different.
A week ago, the Russian forces at the far end of the Donbass had to attack on front lines about 50 miles long. That meant the Russian troops were very thinly spread.
Once Lysychansk falls, that whole Eastern section of the Donbass will be under Russian control.
Here’s the front lines a week ago:
See the dotted line that crosses the middle of the white section? That will be the new front lines.
Troops that last week were spread out across 50 miles of fighting perimeter will be able to focus their efforts on a front line only ten miles wide.
Most of the Ukrainian troops who opposed the Russians on those 50 miles of front lines will either be dead or captured. Most of their equipment will have been captured or destroyed as well.
What will happen when the Russians can concentrate several battle groups of troops on a set of front lines an order of magnitude shorter? While I can’t say for absolute certain, I can say I would really hate to be a Ukrainian soldier facing such an overwhelmingly large Russian force.
I suspect that sometime shortly thereafter - perhaps a week, maybe a month - the retreat of the Ukrainian army will degrade into a rout.
At some point, the mainstream media in the West will have to admit what has happened. They will do so grudgingly, and reluctantly.
Don’t expect any apologies for the blatantly false “Ukraine is winning” narrative of the past four months. As with Russia-gate and the Hunter Biden laptop, the mainstream media will just hope for a collective amnesia one more time.
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Yes indeed, they will be hoping for a collective amnesia. And I hoping that I will be in vain. Or the final proof of collective stupidity. It looks like in coming weeks/months there will be increased reliance on that. As one with a fair grasp
(IMHO) of what's going on in Ukraine I agree with your overview. I eagerly replied to your post because for some weeks have been trying to understand how can they peddle those lies and expect what? that they'll magically change to facts?
Enjoyed reading your post Bruce and, thank you for allowing me to comment.