Statistical Malpractice

The CDC obfuscates, as usual

The CDC has released mortality statistics for 2021.

The numbers are horrible. The only way that the CDC could make them appear somewhat normal was to compare those numbers to 2020 - another horrible year.

(There is some mathematics in what follows. You can ignore what comes in italicized brackets on the right unless you want to understand where I got my other numbers.)

These tables come from: https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/data/databriefs/db456-tables.pdf#4

Life expectancy for people born in the U.S. during 2021 stands at 76.4 years, the lowest on record since 1996.

What's most shocking is that life expectancy for an American man is now down to 73.5 years. The US is 51st in the world in male life expectancy - behind places like Cuba, Ecuador, China, Panama, Morocco and Iran.

Notice that the death rate rose in every age cohort between 2020 and 2021:

What's most surprising is that in the 85 and over age group - the cohort most at risk of dying of COVID - the death rate rose by only 3.5%. (15,743.3/15,210.9X100 - 100)

In contrast, the death rate in the 35-44 group jumped by 16%. (287.9/248.0X100 -100)

Something very strange is happening there!

It's also interesting to look at the top causes of death:

We see that more Americans died of COVID in 2021 - after the vaccines had arrived - than in 2020. (416,893 versus 350,831) That's hardly a vaccine success story!

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Comparing 2021 only to 2020 is disingenuous.

The year 2020 was anything but a normal year. The year 2019 had mortality stats firmly in the normal range. What happens when we compare 2021 to 2019?

Here's the comparable 2019 data: https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/data/databriefs/db395-tables-508.pdf#1

Life expectancy fell by an incredible 2.4 years between 2019 and 2021. (78.8-76.4)

Changes in death rates for different age groups is even more shocking:

Deaths in the 35-44 cohort rose 44% between 2019 and 2021! (287.9/199.2X100 - 100)

That's really weird given how low the death rate is for COVID in that age group.

Finally, it's interesting to look at changes in death rates for specific conditions:

The all-cause death rate rose by 23% between 2019 and 2021. (879.7/715.2X100 - 100)

All-cause deaths rose by 164.5 deaths per 100,000 population. (879.7-715.2)

But COVID deaths were only 104.1/100,000 in 2021.

That means that only 63% of the increased death rate in 2021 over 2019 can be explained by COVID. (104.1/164.5 X100)

What caused the other 37% of deaths? I suspect if the CDC really wanted to know they could dig down into the source data to find out.

For example, increased heart disease deaths can explain 20% of the extra 2021 deaths not caused by COVID. (173.8-161.5)/(879.7-715.2-104.1)X100-100)

Heart disease deaths rose by 7.6% between 2019 and 2021. (173.8/161.5X100 -100)

Why would that happen?

Wouldn’t it be nice if the CDC were a little more curious, and a little more honest?