Consequences of the Israel-Iran War

Assuming for the moment that it's over...

Donald Trump is now taking full credit for stopping the war he helped start. How long the current ceasefire holds, remains to be seen. Jeffrey Sachs points out that prior to this, Israel has violated every single ceasefire agreement it has entered into. We can only hope that pressure from the US President will make this ceasefire different. My guess is that Israel will try to indirectly provoke Iran into retaliation - perhaps by murdering more Iranian scientists - rather than breaking the ceasefire directly.

Assuming that the war is stopped for now, we can begin to count its costs:

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1. No-one Will Trust Anything the US Government Says

It is virtually certain that parts of the US Government knew of Israel’s unprovoked decapitation strike on Iran in advance. (Whether Donald Trump himself knew about Israel’s attack in advance depends on which of his tweets you believe.) In either case, most of the world assumes that the United States was pretending to negotiate with Iran in order to lull Iran into a false sense of security so they could be blindsided in an ambush. I think we can assume that whatever hope there was of a negotiated rapprochement between Russia and the United States, or between China and the United States, is now gone. The rest of the world will also now be reluctant to trust anything that Uncle Sam says.

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2. Iran Will Now Fully Embrace Partnerships with Both Russia and China.

Russia tells us it offered Iran a mutual-defence pact with Russia months ago. Iran said ‘no,’ thinking that doing so would deep-six any chances of rapprochement with the United States. We have to guess that Iran is now exploring greatly expanded defence ties with both Russia and China. (Iran’s Minister of Defense was just in China, looking at Chinese fighter jets.) We also have to guess Iran will encourage large amounts of investment from both Russia and China in Iran’s oil and nuclear industries. Then, if war resumes at any point in the future, Russia and China will have a large economic stake in keeping the Iranian Government from failing.

3. The Myth of Israeli Invulnerability Has Been Shattered

Though Israel has done its best to prevent the world from knowing the extent of the damage it has suffered, it is clear the damage was substantial. One of two Israeli oil refineries was severely damaged, as were power plants, port facilities, Mossad headquarters, and Israeli air force bases. Five thousand Israelis lost their homes. One suspects the number of dead and injured is higher than Israel is admitting. Parts of Tel Aviv and Haifa look like Gaza North. All of that in only twelve days of war. Turkey and the Arab world must have taken note: Israel is small, and it is not invincible.

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4. Israel is in Serious Economic Trouble

I’ve seen figures that the direct costs of the war were as high as 20 billion dollars. I suspect the number of tourists who will feel safe to visit Israel anytime soon will be very low. Israeli products are at increasing risk of boycotts. Even shipping giant Maersk is refusing to ship products that support illegal Israeli settlements. The longer the shadow of multiple wars hangs over Israel, the greater the incentive for dual-passport Israelis to leave.

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5. Europe Is Likely to Become Increasingly Fractured

I think it would be fair to say that most Europeans are not happy with either Israel or Donald Trump’s behavior. I suspect there’s going to be more than one European Government thrown out of office in the near future, in part because of the failure of said Governments to stand up to Donald Trump. (I suspect half of Europe wanted to barf when Mark Rutte so obsequiously said of Trump: “Daddy sometimes needs to use strong language.) European support for their war-mongering Governments is rapidly disappearing. It’s also clear that ordinary Europeans are increasingly uncomfortable with Israel slaughtering women and children every day in Gaza, even if their Governments are pretending not to notice.

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6. The Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty is Dead

I agree with George Galloway: Most of the nations of the world will look at what has happened to Iran and North Korea, and decide there is absolutely no safety in signing the NN-PT. Iran signed the treaty, and allowed all its nuclear sites to be inspected to make clear they were not making a nuclear bomb, even after the US sanctioned them. They got ambushed for their troubles. North Korea didn’t sign the treaty, built nuclear bombs and ICBM missiles to deliver them. They have not been attacked. We have to think that nations like Venezuela, Cuba, Nicaragua, and Libya will realize that there’s no percentage in signing the NN-PT. They’ve now got every incentive to either build nuclear bombs and ICBMs, or buy them direct from North Korea.

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7. Regime Change

Though it is possible the Government of Iran will collapse, Israel’s brutal ambush seems to have united Iranians behind their Government. I’d say at this point, the outrage the war has created across the Middle East means that we’re more likely to see regime change in Egypt, Jordan, Saudi Arabia or Turkey than we are in Iran. It’s a given that any new Government that emerges will be more hostile to Israel, and to the United States. We should also not dismiss the possibility of regime change in London, Paris, Berlin, Brussels, or Jerusalem…

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If there’s any good news, it’s clear that no-one, with the possible exception of Israel, wants to see the 12-Day War go into Round Two.

Frederic Merz might speak of the Israelis doing the ‘dirty work’ for Europe, but I suspect Europe’s appetite for actually going to war in the Middle East is approximately ZERO.

I also suspect that Turkey, the Arab world, and Islamic world will continue to condemn Israel while they sit on the sidelines. Solidarity is clearly not their strong point. Only if a second round of the Israel-Iran war were to exhaust Israel’s Iron Dome, and empty Israel’s weapon stocks, might those countries risk the wrath of the United States by attacking Israel en masse.

With two million Russian Jews living in Israel, we can also be reasonably sure Russia will do everything it can to avoid the war escalating again.

I’m also sure that China will do its level best not to get drawn into a wider war in the Middle East. That said, I strongly suspect China is quietly halting all shipments of rare earth metals to both Europe and the United States. It wouldn’t surprise me if China is also actively exploring whether they could crash the US stock, bond and real estate markets by quietly intervening to drive down value of the US dollar.

It’s also a given that China will be doing everything they can to promote membership in the BRICS alliance as the best way for the developing world to find a refuge from American bullying. Donald Trump has been a great salesman for the BRICS alliance.

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PS: Only Jimmy Dore can make the end of the world funny - and ironic.

PPS: Anyone in the UK who imagines the UK is somehow not complicit in what’s happening in Gaza should watch this. The fawning chihauhua known as Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney is no better.

PPPS: Sometimes I hate being right. Just 24 hours after I first posted this, there’s an announcement that Iran has embraced a full partnership with Russia and China. Eight years ago, Russia, China, North Korea, and Iran were separate and isolated enemies of America. Thanks to Trump and Biden, America now faces a powerful, hostile, and united alliance of Russia, China, North Korea and Iran. Attack any one and America will be now at war with all four! Congratulations!