The Case for Vaccine Passports Just Evaporated

Surprising Scottish Data

Whatever justification for vaccine passports that might have existed with the Delta Variant has completely evaporated since the spread of the Omicron Variant.

Scotland is about two weeks ahead of Canada in the Omicron wave, so they can give us a foretaste of what’s coming. They are also much better at data collection.

The following data from the Scottish Government is not easy to understand, so I will walk you through it slowly. At the outset, please notice this data considers the incidence of each vaccination status in the entire Scottish population. (You can see in the first column the number of unvaccinated dropping each week as Scots continue to get vaccinated!) So it measures the risk of each group according to its share of the population.

First let's look at cases of Omicron in the most recent four weeks of available data:

The table looks at four vaccination statuses in two columns: on the left there’s unvaccinated above fully vaccinated, on the right there’s single-vaccinated above booster vaccinated.

You'll notice the column marked "Age-standardized Case Rate." That's there because the older you get the more at risk you are from COVID, and younger people are more likely to be unvaccinated. They adjusted the data to correct for any distortions caused by age.

You'll notice if you look at the columns for Age Standardized Case Rate, for each of the four weeks those who are unvaccinated are catching Omicron at a lower rate than the single- and double-vaccinated. The fully vaccinated are catching Omicron at roughly double the rate of the unvaccinated! Amazingly enough, the unvaccinated in Scotland are catching Omicron at a lower rate than even the triple-vaccinated!

Now let's look at hospitalizations:

You'll notice once again the age-adjusted hospitalization rate for the unvaccinated is lower than for the fully vaccinated in all four weeks. They have approximately the same risk of hospitalization as the single vaccinated. The triple-vaccinated have about a quarter the risk of hospitalization as anyone else.

Finally, lets look at deaths:

Once again, the vaccinated are dying at a lower rate than the unvaccinated in each of the four weeks. (Wasn't being fully vaccinated supposed to protect you from dying of COVID?) Oddly enough, those who received one dose of vaccine suffered fewer deaths than either the unvaccinated or the fully vaccinated. And, yes, the booster shot greatly reduces your chances of dying of Omicron, although when you look at the four weeks shown you can see the protection offered by boosters waning in real time.

You'll notice weasel words under the last chart saying you shouldn't use these charts to measure the efficacy of vaccines. Here are some of the main factors that could slant the data:

1) Many of the unvaccinated didn't get vaccinated because they are COVID-recovered and thus protected by natural immunity,

2) Those with comorbidities are more likely to get vaccinated, and

3) Vaccine passports mean the unvaccinated are restricted from high-risk settings.

I suspect when these three variables are factored in, the fully vaccinated would have approximately the same risk of COVID infection, hospitalization and death as the unvaccinated.

Now let's look at the issue of vaccine passports. We all know the real reason for vaccine passports was that they were an attempt to bully the unvaccinated into getting vaccinated. But Governments couldn't say that. Instead they made three moral arguments:

1) The unvaccinated were more likely to catch and spread COVID,

2) The unvaccinated were more likely to be hospitalized and plug up the hospitals,

3) The nanny state had to protect the unvaccinated, who were at larger risk of dying.

This Scottish data just blew up all three arguments. At minimum, it shows the unvaccinated are no more likely than the fully vaccinated to become infected with Omicron, go to hospital, or die.

As for the real purpose of vaccine passports - to persuade the unvaxxed to get vaccinated - that horse has already left the barn. Our best guess is that half or more of the population is already Omicron-infected and most of the rest will catch Omicron in the next two weeks - i.e., before any vaccine or booster could take effect. Omicron is doing what vaccines should have done and didn’t: Providing a robust and long-lasting immunity.

Perhaps it is time to admit that Omicron is mild and of little risk to those under the age of 60. (Of the 79 Omicron deaths in BC over the past two weeks, only 3 were under the age of 60. See the postscript below.)

Memo to Bonnie Henry: Cancel the vaccine passports today. Omicron has made them obsolete. And hire back ALL those doctors and nurses you fired for being unvaccinated. They are needed, and present no more risk to patients than fully vaccinated doctors and nurses.

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PS: Here’s how I got the BC data. This table of cumulative deaths comes from the most recent BCCDC Situation Report:

Here’s the same table from two weeks earlier:

Simply subtract the deaths column of the latter from the former to get the deaths in the most recent two weeks. No-one under the age of thirty died. There were three deaths under the age of 60, and 76 deaths age 60 and older. Like I said in an earlier post, it is the fully vaccinated old and frail that are dying.